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Maldives Morning Brief

Maldives Morning Brief | 7 October 2026

Arrivals through 4 October stood at 1,628,419, 56,316 below last year, and a 5 October industry meeting left the 17% tourism-tax amendment still outside parliament. On 7 October, MMS forecasts slight seas and waves of 1–3 feet, with isolated heavy showers in the southern marine outlook.

23 min read

A considered edit of what matters for a journey to the Maldives

In this edition
Updated October 7, 2026

Dolphin Loves Travel | Maldives Tourism Daily Brief

Wednesday, 7 October 2026

Three Main Themes

  • Arrivals through 4 October: MMTV, citing the Ministry of Tourism, put arrivals through 4 October at 1,628,419, 56,316 below the 1,684,735 recorded a year earlier. China sent 309,913, a 19.3% share. Resorts hosted 73%.
  • The 5 October industry meeting: the tourism minister sat with finance, the economy portfolio, the attorney general and the tax commissioner. Principals from Crown, Sun Siyam and Villa attended. Several milestones toward the 2027 arrival target were agreed. The amending text has not been sent to parliament.
  • October product and sea state: St Regis marks its tenth anniversary from 10 to 20 November. Mirihi Island has a Thai dinner on 10 October and another on 11 October. On 7 October, all five stations show slight seas and waves of 1–3 feet. The southern regional forecast includes isolated heavy showers.

Industry Observation

Demand has one more day’s reading. The annual gap remains. MMTV reported on 6 October that Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation statistics put arrivals through 4 October at 1,628,419, against 1,684,735 a year earlier, a shortfall of 56,316. The daily average is 5,879, against 6,082. China sent 309,913, or 19.3%; Russia 232,676, or 14.6%; the United Kingdom 121,239, or 7.6%. Set against the 1,622,063 arrivals through 3 October cited by One Online on 4 October, the latest day added 6,356. China added 2,402, Russia 777 and the United Kingdom 402. The pace after National Day is still there. The year is still 56,316 short.

On policy, the promise to amend the law has become a face-to-face meeting. Sun Online reported at 23:28 on 5 October that the government met the industry that day. Those present included Finance Minister Hassan Zareer, Tourism Minister Mohamed Ameen, Attorney General Ahmed Usham and Commissioner General of Taxation Fathimath Ameeza, together with Crown Company Chairman Hussain Afeef, Sun Siyam Group Chairman Ahmed Siyam Mohamed and Villa Group Managing Director Siyad Qasim. Hotelier Maldives added on 6 October that Minister of Economic Development, Transport and Trade Mohamed Saeed was also there. The ministry said the discussion focused on raising arrivals, meeting the 2027 target and current difficulties, and that several milestones had been agreed from industry recommendations. The list of milestones was not published. The same report said parliament resumed on 5 October after a two-month recess, and that the proposed amendments had not been submitted.

On the product side, fixed dates are being used to hold guests for the middle and later part of October and for Christmas. The Ritz-Carlton Maldives moved from One MICHELIN Key to Two, revealed on 18 September. St Regis has placed its tenth anniversary on 10–20 November, with a German chef’s dinner on the 19th. Mirihi Island hosts a Phuket chef on 10 and 11 October. The festive season at Coco Palm Dhuni Kolhu runs through 7 January 2027. The kitchen at Reethi Faru Resort took gold, silver and bronze. Five Sun Siyam islands split Halloween into five themes, and several offers take bookings until 31 October.

The weather is one step lighter than the day before, and the southern regional wording needs a closer look. MMS gives the national forecast for 7 October as isolated showers and a few thunderstorms, slight seas and waves of 1–3 feet, with no marine advisory. On the five station cards, the north, the area around Malé and the south-central atolls are clear. Kaadehdhoo in the south and Gan at the far south have light showers. Station seas are slight at all five. The regional marine text for Kadhdhoo, Kaadehdhoo and Gan separately describes scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy showers. Operating beds number 67,961, and total bed capacity is 68,681.

Market Data Snapshot

The table uses two cut-offs. Arrivals, the daily average, the top three source markets, accommodation shares and beds through 4 October 2026 come from ministry statistics cited by MMTV on 6 October. January–September tourists, September tourists, Germany and Italy come from the full update of 30 September: 1,603,021 international arrivals for the year, of which 1,571,977 were tourists, 15,461 were business visitors and 15,583 were cruise passengers. The 4 October report calls the total tourists and does not separate tourists, business visitors and cruise passengers again. It also does not update Germany or Italy.

IndicatorOfficial figureDolphin view
Arrivals through 4 October1,628,419; 56,316 fewer YoYStill short of last year’s 1,684,735; the daily average is 5,879.
Daily average5,879; 6,082 a year earlier203 fewer a day; the gap has accumulated day by day.
Tourists, January–September1,571,977; -3.9% YoY64,512 fewer than a year earlier; this remains the base for the full-year structure.
China309,913; 19.3%; No. 1Through 4 October, 8,936 above the 300,977 recorded at 30 September.
Russia232,676; 14.6%; No. 2Through 4 October, payment routes and exchange rates remain the key variables for closing sales.
United Kingdom121,239; 7.6%; No. 3Through 4 October, long-haul guests are more sensitive to connections and transfers.
Germany99,062; No. 4; through 30 SeptemberNo new figure on 4 October; use this reading for the European ranking.
Italy98,039; 6.2%; No. 5; through 30 SeptemberOnly 1,023 behind Germany; no new ranking on 4 October.
Where guests stayedResorts 73%; guesthouses 21.9%; hotels 2.3%; vessels 1.9%Through 4 October, resorts remain dominant.
Beds in operation67,961; total capacity 68,681Resorts hold 66% of operating beds, guesthouses 25%, vessels 5% and hotels 4%.
September tourists148,801; -0.5% YoYOnly 762 fewer than last September; the pace picked up only at month-end.

Dolphin view: The 4 October total is 25,398 above the 1,603,021 international arrivals at 30 September, about 6,350 a day over four days. The year is still 56,316 short, and hotels do not have the footing for a broad price increase. Keep pricing new bookings under the current 17% rules.

Weather and Sea Conditions

All five MMS Tomorrow station cards refer to 7 October 2026 and were updated between 00:40 and 01:00 Maldives time on 6 October. The official general forecast is valid from 10:00 on 6 October to 10:00 on 7 October 2026 (Maldives time). The overall picture is isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. Wind is light and variable, becoming west to northwesterly at 3–10 mph. Seas are slight. Waves are about 1–3 feet. There is no special marine advisory. The five cards do not match one another: Hanimaadhoo, Hulhule and Kadhdhoo are clear, and Kaadehdhoo and Gan have light showers, at 31–32°C, with slight seas at every station. The regional marine forecast splits in two. Hulhule and Hanimaadhoo describe isolated showers and a few thunderstorms, with west to northwesterly winds at 3–9 knots. Kadhdhoo, Kaadehdhoo and Gan describe scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy showers, with southwest to westerly winds at 3–9 knots. Both groups have slight seas, waves of 1–3 feet and no marine advisory. The general forecast ends at 10:00 on 7 October. For water activities after that morning, use the next MMS update.

Station sea state and regional wave height need to be read together. Station seas are slight at all five stations, and regional waves are 1–3 feet across the board, one step below the previous day’s general forecast of 2–4 feet. The station weather lines are clear in the north and the centre, and light showers at the two southern stations. The regional text for the three southern stations is heavier than the station weather lines, and it includes isolated heavy showers.

StationRegional referenceWeather on 7 OctoberTemperatureWindStation sea stateOfficial regional wave height and validity
HulhuleMalé airport / centralClear32°CEast 6 mphSlight1–3 feet; 10:00 on 6 October to 10:00 on 7 October
HanimaadhooNorthClear32°CEast-northeast 6 mphSlight1–3 feet; 10:00 on 6 October to 10:00 on 7 October
KadhdhooSouth-centralClear32°CEast 5 mphSlight1–3 feet; 10:00 on 6 October to 10:00 on 7 October
KaadehdhooSouthLight showers31°CNortheast 5 mphSlight1–3 feet; 10:00 on 6 October to 10:00 on 7 October
GanFar southLight showers31°CNortheast 5 mphSlight1–3 feet; 10:00 on 6 October to 10:00 on 7 October

Station cards describe temperature, weather, wind and sea state near each station. Wave heights come from the wider MMS regional marine forecast. Both describe regional trends. Whether a given route or dive site operates that day is decided on site by the operator and the resort.

72-Hour Outlook

  • Next 48 hours | 8 October: Overall, the five stations are at 30–31°C. Thundershowers appear around Malé, in the north and at the far south. The south-central atolls and the south have light showers. Station seas are slight at all five. The key change is that Hulhule, Hanimaadhoo and Gan turn from clear or light showers to thundershowers. Hulhule is southeast 6 mph, thundershowers and slight. Hanimaadhoo is east 6 mph, thundershowers and slight. Kadhdhoo is southeast 5 mph, light showers and slight. Kaadehdhoo is east 5 mph, light showers and slight. Gan is southeast 6 mph, thundershowers and slight. The sea-state risk spreads from the southern heavy-shower wording into thundershowers in the centre and the north. Waves in this window stay slight. These two outlooks are coarser than the next-day card for 7 October.
  • Next 72 hours | 9 October: Overall, the five stations are at 30–31°C. Thundershowers remain around Malé and through the south-central atolls, the south and the far south. The north turns to light showers. Station seas stay slight at all five. The key change is that Hanimaadhoo turns from thundershowers to light showers, while the other four stations have thundershowers. The wind at Hulhule rises to south-southwest 7 mph. Hanimaadhoo is southeast 5 mph, light showers and slight. Kadhdhoo is southwest 6 mph, thundershowers and slight. Kaadehdhoo is southeast 5 mph, thundershowers and slight. Gan is southeast 6 mph, thundershowers and slight. The sea-state risk sits in the 7 mph wind plus thundershowers at Hulhule, and in thundershowers from the south-central atolls to the far south.
  • Action: On 7 October, the weather lines are clear at Hanimaadhoo in the north, at Hulhule near Malé and at Kadhdhoo in the south-central atolls, and station seas are already slight. Speedboats, seaplanes, diving and sandbank trips can be scheduled in daylight, and moved indoors if showers arrive. Kaadehdhoo and Gan have light showers. The regional forecast for Kadhdhoo, Kaadehdhoo and Gan includes isolated heavy showers, so push longer southern sandbank trips later in the afternoon back. On 8 October, Hulhule, Hanimaadhoo and Gan have thundershowers, so finish water activities in the morning where possible. On 9 October, Hulhule has a south-southwest wind at 7 mph with thundershowers, so leave room for delay on seaplanes and speedboats around Malé. Waves of 1–3 feet describe a stretch of sea. Whether a particular boat or a particular dive site goes out is decided on site.

Industry News

1. Arrivals through 4 October reach 1,628,419, 56,316 below last year

MMTV reported on 6 October that statistics released by the Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation put arrivals through 4 October at 1,628,419, against 1,684,735 a year earlier. The daily average is 5,879, against 6,082. China accounted for 309,913, or 19.3%, and remains the largest source market. Russia accounted for 232,676, or 14.6%. The United Kingdom accounted for 121,239, or 7.6%. By accommodation, resorts hosted 73%, guesthouses on inhabited islands 21.9%, hotels 2.3% and tourist vessels 1.9%. Beds in operation number 67,961, of which resorts hold 66%, guesthouses 25%, tourist vessels 5% and hotels 4%. Total bed capacity is 68,681.

That total is 6,356 above the 1,622,063 arrivals through 3 October cited by One Online on 4 October. China is 2,402 above 307,511, Russia is 777 above 231,899, and the United Kingdom is 402 above 120,837. International arrivals at 30 September were 1,603,021. The 4 October total is 25,398 above that figure, about 6,350 a day over four days, close to the single-day peak of 6,284 on 26 September. MMTV calls the 4 October total tourists and does not separate it again into tourists, business visitors and cruise passengers. The 30 September split still stands: 1,571,977 tourists, 15,461 business visitors and 15,583 cruise passengers. Germany at 99,062 and Italy at 98,039 also stop on that day. Arrivals for the whole of 2025 were 2,275,088.

Dolphin view: When following up Chinese groups, write 309,913 and 19.3%, and keep using the 30 September split for the full-year structure. Lock seats in that order. Do not recalculate the share from the four-day total.

2. Tourism ministry meets three groups on 5 October; the amending text is not yet before parliament

Sun Online reported at 23:28 on 5 October that the government met the tourism industry on 5 October to discuss how to raise arrivals, meet next year’s target and deal with current difficulties. On the government side were Finance Minister Hassan Zareer, Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister Mohamed Ameen, Attorney General Ahmed Usham and Commissioner General of Taxation Fathimath Ameeza. On the industry side were Crown Company Chairman Hussain Afeef, Sun Siyam Group Chairman Ahmed Siyam Mohamed and Villa Group Managing Director Siyad Qasim. The ministry said several key milestones had been agreed from industry recommendations, and it restated that the government would keep working closely with the sector. The milestones themselves were not listed.

Hotelier Maldives reported the same meeting on 6 October and noted that Minister of Economic Development, Transport and Trade Mohamed Saeed was also present. The report places the meeting beside two rules already in force: resorts must convert 40% of foreign-currency revenue through domestic banks; and the Eighth Amendment to the Goods and Services Tax Act, ratified on 31 August, extends the 17% Tourism Goods and Services Tax to offshore booking platforms, tour operators and travel agents without a permanent establishment, effective 1 October. Two days after implementation began, Tourism Minister Mohamed Ameen said President Mohamed Muizzu had decided to amend the framework again. The details of that amendment have not been published. Parliament resumed on 5 October after a two-month recess, and the proposed amendments have not been submitted. For sales teams, what changed on 5 October is that the conversation has started. The text in force is still the version that took effect on 1 October.

Dolphin view: If a guest asks when the tax rate will change, say the 5 October meeting did not publish a new text. Keep writing confirmations at the current 17%.

3. The Ritz-Carlton receives Two MICHELIN Keys; 657 hotels hold that tier in 2026

Hotelier Maldives reported on 6 October that The Ritz-Carlton Maldives received Two MICHELIN Keys. The award was revealed on 18 September, from the 2026 global MICHELIN Key selection. The resort’s 2025 result was One Key. The report says 657 hotels received Two Keys in 2026, a tier described as “an exceptional stay.” The resort is on Fari Islands in North Malé Atoll, opened in 2021, and was designed by Kerry Hill Architects. Seven restaurants and bars sit on the Culinary Island, Grand Sunset Beach and Fari Marina Village. The spa was the first in the region to partner with the British brand Bamford. General Manager Oscar Postma said the key reflects the detail of the team and the whole island, including the villas, the food and the people brought in through Masters of Crafts.

Two Keys give sales one more opening line. They do not rewrite room count or the rate sheet. The report does not give a villa total, a list of key judges, or a rate change tied to the award. Each villa has an ocean view, an infinity pool and a personal butler. What guests still ask is whether a room is open on the stay date, which rate includes the butler, and which of the seven restaurants needs a reservation. The art residency and the Halloween week sit on another calendar. This item adds the award name.

Dolphin view: When a high-end guest asks, write the award as “Two MICHELIN Keys” and note that 2025 was One Key. Quote villas and the butler from the latest rate sheet.

4. St Regis marks its tenth anniversary from 10 to 20 November, with a German chef’s dinner on the 19th

Hotelier Maldives reported on 6 October that St Regis will celebrate its tenth anniversary from 10 to 20 November. The resort welcomed its first guests in November 2016 and is in Dhaalu Atoll. The programme opens on 10 November with a sunset cocktail. That evening, guests and Reefscapers will build a coral frame in the shape of the number 10, install it on the house reef, and then sit down to a beach dinner. On 11 and 12 November, Fann Art Therapie runs mandala string-art workshops. On 11 November, Felice Capasso, World Class Global Bartender of the Year 2025, serves the Bright Mary at The Whale Bar, his reading of the St Regis Bloody Mary.

Fragrance and the chef follow. Louise Farina, a ninth-generation member of the Farina family, gives perfume classes on 14 and 16 November, and on 15 November there is a dinner built around the scent of the Original Eau de Cologne. The Whale Bar serves a limited Farina cocktail from 14 to 20 November. German chef Alexander Herrmann presents a wine-pairing dinner on 19 November in the underground cellar Decanter, and a masterclass on 20 November. His restaurant, AURA by Alexander Herrmann & Tobias Bätz, holds two MICHELIN stars. Another sunset cocktail closes the programme on 20 November. General Manager Ozgur Cengiz said that over the decade guests have brought proposals, family gatherings and private milestones to the island. The report does not give capacity limits or supplements for each session. What can go on a reservation now is the theme of these 11 days and the dates above.

Dolphin view: Sell the anniversary only to guests in house from 10 to 20 November. Push the bartender on the 11th, the fragrance dinner on the 15th and the German chef’s dinner on the 19th. On the other dates, sell the theme.

5. Coco Palm Dhuni Kolhu runs its festive season through 7 January, with an island feast on 6 January

Hotelier Maldives reported on 6 October that Coco Palm Dhuni Kolhu will host “Roots & Tides” from 22 December 2026 to 7 January 2027. The resort is in the Baa Atoll UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and is part of Coco Collection. The programme opens with the festive tree lighting and Saifodhu, with music. Cultural pieces include a Bodu Mas performance and Lava Baazi, a traditional chain-song that calls for a group. The Keyolhu beach barbecue serves food grown on the island. For couples there is restorative yoga, sunset drinks and the Maldivian Dream Escape at Coco Spa. Families can picnic on the uninhabited island of Embudhoo.

Children’s and marine programmes are listed on their own. Coco Little Islanders’ Corner offers Little Hoteliers, treasure trails, crafts, cookies, pizza and Kids’ Ocean Day. On the water there is Ocean Stories, Turtle Tales and Aquatic Raiders, an underwater treasure hunt on the house reef. Christmas Eve is a gala dinner with live music. New Year’s Eve starts with sunset aperitifs, then a gala dinner and the countdown to 2027. The Island Festive Feast is on 6 January, followed by Afterglow, with a bonfire, a DJ and performances. The resort was named Maldives’ Leading Green Resort at the World Travel Awards in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The reservations address is reservations@cococollection.com. The report does not publish supplements for each session, or whether children are charged separately.

Dolphin view: Lock Christmas rooms in three blocks: the Christmas Eve dinner, the New Year countdown and the 6 January island feast. Put children’s activities under Little Islanders, and ask for the boat separately for the Embudhoo picnic.

6. Mirihi Island stages a Thai pop-up on 10 and 11 October, with limited seats both nights

Hotelier Maldives reported on 5 October that Mirihi Island will host a Thai culinary pop-up on 10 and 11 October, titled “From the Andaman to the Indian Ocean.” Trading as V Villas Maldives at Mirihi, MGallery Collection, the resort receives Executive Chef Pisut Nahan and Lead Mixologist Mongkol Saengchud from V Villas Phuket. Nahan’s menu is modern Thai. Named dishes include Royal Massaman Croquette, Siam Betel Crab and Ocean Tuna Crudo. Saengchud builds cocktails from sweet, sour and bitter plus umami. Named drinks include the Mirihi Martini, Muraka Whisper and Tropical Terroir.

The two nights use different rooms. One is Cocktail & Dine at Muraka. The other is a sundowner and beach dinner at AKOYA Sea Lounge. The report says timings, the full menu and reservations will be announced later, and that availability on both nights is limited. Guests who are not in house on 10 and 11 October cannot buy this dinner. It suits guests who have already locked those two nights and will pay extra for one evening’s dining. The release does not give a discount, a menu price, or whether children are seated.

Dolphin view: Offer this Thai dinner only to guests in house on 10 and 11 October. Ask for Muraka and AKOYA as two separate nights, and write the menu price into the quote once it is out.

7. The Reethi Faru kitchen takes gold, silver and bronze

Hotelier Maldives reported on 5 October that Reethi Faru Resort announced three medals for its kitchen team across two competitions. At the Hotel Asia Culinary Challenge, Chef Rohit Kabdal won gold in Decorated Cake, and Chef Abhishek Sharma won bronze in Hot Cooking Fish. At the FHAM Global Culinary Challenge, Chef Mayank Bijalwan won silver in Dress the Cake. The resort said the competitions gave its chefs a chance to practise technique and compare notes with peers, and that the three medals now sit on the record of the guest dining experience.

The medals cover cake decoration, hot food and a second cake category. The report does not give the competition dates or the judges, and it does not say whether the medals change the menu. For a guest, they show that the kitchen has placed in open competition. The first line of a dining introduction can carry these three medals. Restaurant names and menu prices stay on the rate sheet. The resort congratulated Kabdal, Bijalwan and Sharma.

Dolphin view: When presenting dining at Reethi Faru, name the three medals: gold for decorated cake, bronze for hot fish and silver for Dress the Cake. Quote the restaurant and the menu price from the rate sheet.

8. Traeger oversees three CROSSROADS hotels from 1 October

Hotelier Maldives reported on 5 October that S Hotels & Resorts expanded the remit of Alexander Traeger, Area General Manager, Maldives, from 1 October, managing the portfolio under “one destination, one team, one goal.” He oversees three hotels at CROSSROADS Maldives: SAii Lagoon, Hard Rock and So Maldives. The remit also covers the marina at CROSSROADS. SAii Lagoon is part of Curio Collection by Hilton. The company said the move is meant to strengthen collaboration, operations and commercial fit across the islands, and to support the guest experience and talent development.

Traeger has more than 20 years of international hotel experience. He said he would next strengthen operations, develop the teams and deliver distinct experiences on each island. The report does not announce a single new rate, interchangeable stays or a package discount. The three hotels remain three inventories. If a guest wants two islands on one trip, transfers, bills and membership benefits follow each island’s current rules. The area general manager is one point of contact. Inventory stays separate.

Dolphin view: When quoting SAii Lagoon, Hard Rock and So Maldives, copy the same area general manager. Quote each island’s inventory on its own, and do not combine them into one pass.

9. Five Sun Siyam islands publish Halloween themes; seasonal offers take bookings until 31 October

Hotelier Maldives reported on 4 October that Sun Siyam has set a separate Halloween theme for each of five islands. Siyam World Maldives uses CULT CLASSICS: guests walk through an interactive set, and DJ and producer SARRA plays after the scares, including Afro House and Latin House. Sun Siyam Olhuveli takes Beetlejuice, with black-and-white stripes, green light and roaming characters, and DJ Giada Brincè. Iru Fushi Beach & Spa holds a beach barbecue at Islander’s Grill, followed by Bodu Beru, and then a DJ party at Water’s Edge.

The two family islands are written differently. At Sun Siyam Iru Veli, the day starts with crafts at Turtle Kidz Club, Chemistry Bar hosts a pool party, and the evening is a lobster barbecue with live music. Vilu Reef’s theme is Ocean Haunt, with a Little Monsters Parade, face painting and a beach barbecue. Marketing Director Sara Siyam said guests plan holidays around Halloween, and that CULT CLASSICS should feel like stepping into a film. Several seasonal offers take bookings until 31 October, covering savings on the room, complimentary transfers, resort credit and signature experiences. The report does not give the night of each island’s event, or a discount percentage.

Dolphin view: If a guest wants a scare, offer Siyam World. If they want a family parade, offer Vilu Reef. Use 31 October as the booking deadline, and write the percentage into the quote once it is published.

10. Second Zero to Divemaster cohort graduates; 20 people trained in total

Hotelier Maldives reported on 6 October that the second cohort of the Atmosphere Foundation “Zero to Divemaster” scholarship has graduated, bringing the total trained across two cohorts to 20 young Maldivians. The second cohort had 10 participants, five women and five men, over three months, moving from PADI Open Water to Advanced, Emergency First Response, Rescue and professional Divemaster. Training is run with Moodhu Bulhaa Dive Centre in Vilimalé, for local people with no previous diving experience. The second cohort started in July, immediately after the first finished.

The first cohort started in April. All 10 earned a Divemaster certificate, and nine are now working on safari vessels, at resorts or at dive centres on inhabited islands, an employment rate of 90%. When the second cohort launched in July, only three from the first cohort had found work; that later rose to nine. The scholarship covers tuition, certification and registration fees, accommodation and meals. The second cohort also covered training materials and dive insurance. Participants agree to work in the Maldives diving or marine industry for at least two years after certification. The foundation confirmed the programme will continue. For resort dive centres, this is a group that already holds the ticket and has committed to stay in the country. Start dates depend on each centre’s own hiring.

Dolphin view: When a dive centre is short of people, put these 20 certified Divemasters on the local hiring list. Nine from the first cohort are already working. The second cohort has just graduated.

Daily Line

Arrivals through 4 October are 56,316 short of last year. The amending text is not in parliament. Price new bookings at the current 17%, and watch for heavy showers in the south.